The Black Caps: Champions Trophy Preview

You could consider Shane Bond a good outside bet to be named man of the series in this edition of the Champion's trophy, for when he's on song he's destructive. Of course, two things are likely to stand in the way of that: his recurring fitness and health problems, and the tendency of the ever-reliable New Zealand top order to capitulate and undo any good work on his part. The 2003 World Cup clash with the Aussies, where he took 6-23 but still ended up on the losing side, is the best example.

There's little you can say that's incisive in a preview of the Champion's Trophy, especially for the Kiwis. First of all, thanks to the existence of the longhorn Cricket Club and its screenings, I hope I'll get to watch at least one game (even in the knowledge that it won't involve the kiwis) . The equation laid out for them is simple enough - win at least two of three games against South Africa, Pakistan, and the qualifier from the intitial stages (Sri Lanka or the West Indies, if things go according to script).

Except for Mark Gillespie, of whom i have no idea about, the Kiwi squad is predictable. While it's probably the best pool of players we've got (and I say 'we' as a pseudo-member of the Beige Brigade), I maintain there should have been room for Ross Taylor. He would have brought in the surprise element, but i guess the selectors feel they have all holes covered in the top order which includes an under-pressure Hamish Marshall. There's really only one currency in the subcontinent, and that's quick runs, which is why Taylor should have been there. Opposition bowlers have seen enough of Fleming, Astle, Vincent, Marshall and Styris though if at least two of them strike a sudden rich vein of form it really won't matter. Peter Fulton provides the promise element for the moment, and in an effort to sound optimistic he should be able to replicate his great form earlier in the year once more. The bowling looks less convinving, and needs to stay injury free. Daniel Vettori remains central to Fleming's plans, but I'd like to see Fleming use him differently. Perhaps as first change, and then a spell at the death? Gillespie was supposedly drafted in with a view to solve New Zealand's problems bowling at the death. However, my view on bowling at the death is that if your bowlers are good enough they'll manage. To put it another way, the best 'death' bowlers you have are most often simply your best bowlers - Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne, as used by Mark Taylor for example. I'd say Bond and Vettori are still the best men for the job, even if they've not been particularly good at it. Bringing in a rookie and expecting him to address this task straightaway is a tough ask. The rest of the bowlers have their own (injury) problems, apart from being none too penetrative. Even so, we might be going in with one medium pacer too many. To put my finger on it, the selection of James Franklin, in these conditions at least, is somewhat redundant but I could still be wrong. However, if I was in Fleming's shoes I'd still be tempted to play two spinners (Dan and Jeetan Patel) for all three games.

The fact that it's not a knockout scenario means that the Black Caps will get second chances unlike the previous two editions where they were creamed by the Aussies. I actually feel the South African game will present an easier challenge than the other two. Personally, I think this is the most boring South African side ever assembled since 1992 so it's a little hard to digest that we lost 4-0 to them last year. I suppose Fleming has his plans right this time for Graeme Smith, Justin Kemp & co. though i can safely imagine it won't include verbal barrage. Sri Lanka and West Indies were both overcome easily at home last summer, but this time the conditions are definitely on their side. As for the Pakistanis, they'd like to think playing in the subcontinent would make it that much easier for them in this group and I'd put them as favourites to top the pool, actually. The point of interest for me is whether the kiwis have finally figured out a way to stifle their big hitters, Razzaq in particular. Knowling the extensive use of previous knowledge that goes into kiwi preparations, Fleming will be wary, but he'll also be looking at exploiting their ability to self-destruct.

It's a tough ask on paper but if collective experience has any value New Zealand should progress to the semis at least. From then on anything can happen, but for once the format of the Champios trophy makes it a valuable build off to the World Cup. In the meantime it's quite exasparating not to have live coverage of the Kiwi's Games.