Paint it, Black: Preview of the tri series

NOTE: By the time this is published, the tri-series would have got underway. Had to rush it in, nevertheless.

There are as many as eight survivors in the kiwi side for the CB series from the one that last competed in the same tournament five years ago (if Scott Styris joins the side later, that'll make it nine). While it does show the reliance of New Zealand on a core group of players, the squad will be hard pressed to emulate the class of 2002, when Fleming had studied the Aussies all season long and worked out their vulnerable areas. Inspired by the rookie Shane Bond, with support from Chris Cairns and Chris Harris, that team subjected Australia to three consecutive defeats and nearly a fourth, playing an unfamiliar brand of streetsmart cricket which caught their opponents napping. This time, the Aussies aren't likely to be off the ball and it will take much more than imaginative captaincy to beat them. Three victories over the Aussies may be a bit optimistic but a place in the finals would be the very least of the team's expectations. Bracewell and Fleming both pride themselves on having worked out a versatile one day outfit, though there must be worries at the back of their minds after the lukewarm series against Sri Lanka. The batting is quite underdone and (as usual) needs either Fleming or Astle to run into a rich vein of form. To do that straightaway in Australia is a tough ask. The bowling perhaps lacks a key ingredient in Kyle Mills, the most improved kiwi player in the last couple of years, and depends too much on Bond. It'll be interesting to see how Fleming uses and shuffles his attack. For instance, a case could be made for using Daniel Vettori in the slog overs, as the Aussies have generally been happy to play out his overs in the middle of the innings. The absence of Scott Styris and Jacob Oram seems to have affected the balance of the side, and the kiwis will be hoping for their return midway through the series. If they are to reach the final, (and I'm sure they will), attacking would be the way to go. NZ have already signaled this intent by using Brendom McCullum as opener. The likes of Ross Taylor and Peter Fulton should enjoy Australian wickets, and Mark Gillespie looks to be a reasonable foil for Bond though the Aussies will be more than happy to test his nerve under pressure. The main worry for me, though is the bench strength or lack of it. With eight games to get through, it looks like Bracewell could have chosen a later moment to unveil his rotation policy!

On to the Aussies, who've won eight out of the last nine triangular tournaments at home. While they look set to make that nine, if there's any weakness on their part it's probably their predicatbility, or so I like to believe; strong men but with a familiar approach. The kiwis have played them so many times in the last couple of years there should be no surprises, really. Yet Fleming and co have totally lost the edge over them, unable to seize vital opportunities each time. As an example, the spin duo of Brad Hogg and Cameron White shouldn't strike terror into the hearts of too many batsmen - I mean, NZ's duo of Vettori and Patel, and even Monty Panesar should really be able to outbowl them. But every time they're able to capitalize on the pressure created by the quickies and prise out a few important wickets. It usually takes outstanding individual performances (Bond in 2002, Jerome Taylor in the Champions Trophy preliminary round this year) to beat the Aussies, simply because they demand the very best of the opposition.

England are something of an unknown entity, beacuse they don't play either Australia or New Zealand regularly in One Day Cricket. Despite their woeful track record of late, this relative anonymity might suit them just fine. What they do have in their ranks which the kiwis don't is proven explosive quality in the batting - Kevin Pietersen and Flintoff, who might understand what Chris Cairns would have felt like as the allround star in an otherwise average lineup. How the kiwi bowlers deal with Pietersen is something I'd be interested to see. Their batting looks a bit more accomplished than New Zealand's at the moment. Add to this a couple of hard nuts in Jamie Dalrymple and Jon Lewis and the side looks decent on paper. I'm backing the kiwis' superior fielding and overall know-how in ODIs to give them the edge. If England do pip them for a place in the final, I may well be tearing my hair out. And if the Aussies are then displaced, I might just buy myself a wig.